Seattle held the best offense in football to 13 points, never turned it over, and won a Super Bowl with a 33% offensive success rate. That combination should be impossible. Here is how it happened.
Seattle did not win this game on offense. Thirty-three percent success rate, minus .05 EPA per play, five Jason Myers field goals. Darnold graded out at the 47th percentile, which is to say completely average.
What won it was a defense that took the ball away three times and an offense that gave it away zero. Maye finished at the 11th percentile of quarterback games this season, sacked six times, picked off twice in the fourth quarter, both out of no-huddle. Derick Hall and Byron Murphy each had two sacks and each graded in the 99th percentile.
The tell is in the box counts. Seattle ran into eight or more defenders on 37.5% of carries and kept running anyway, 27 times to Walker. That is not stubbornness, that is a team that trusted its defense to win a low-scoring game and refused to put the ball in the air where it could be taken away.
| Neutral early-down pass rate | 46.4% |
| Pass rate over expected | -5.9 |
| 1st down pass rate | 43.8% |
| 2nd down pass rate | 60.9% |
| 3rd down pass rate | 70.6% |
| Shotgun rate | 50.0% |
| Avg depth of target | 9.5 |
| Play action rate | 25.0% |
| Screen rate | 5.0% |
| Pre-snap motion | 62.5% |
| No-huddle rate | 5.6% |
| Avg box faced on runs | 7.2 |
| Runs into 8+ box | 37.5% |
| Blitzed on | 50.0% |
| Neutral early-down pass rate | 52.6% |
| Pass rate over expected | +0.2 |
| 1st down pass rate | 74.2% |
| 2nd down pass rate | 82.6% |
| 3rd down pass rate | 93.3% |
| Shotgun rate | 80.0% |
| Avg depth of target | 10.7 |
| Play action rate | 9.3% |
| Screen rate | 3.7% |
| Pre-snap motion | 34.3% |
| No-huddle rate | 27.1% |
| Avg box faced on runs | 6.8 |
| Runs into 8+ box | 7.7% |
| Blitzed on | 22.2% |
| plays | pass | EPA | |
| 11 personnel (3 WR) | 35 | 83% | -0.014 |
| 12 personnel (2 WR) | 25 | 32% | +0.027 |
| 13 personnel (1 WR) | 8 | 25% | -0.137 |
| 12 personnel (0 WR) | 3 | 0% | -0.735 |
| Under Center | 37 | +0.007 | |
| Shotgun | 33 | -0.088 | |
| Pistol | 2 | -0.548 |
| plays | pass | EPA | |
| 11 personnel (3 WR) | 56 | 95% | -0.383 |
| 12 personnel (2 WR) | 7 | 29% | -0.360 |
| 22 personnel (1 WR) | 3 | 0% | +0.314 |
| Shotgun | 57 | -0.385 | |
| Under Center | 13 | +0.042 |
| Quarterback | DB | C/A | Yds | TD/INT | EPA | CPOE | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold QB | 39 | 19/38 | 194 | 1/0 | +0.011 | -8.3 | 47 |
| Skill | Snaps | % | Production | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB | 47 | 65% | 2/4 for 26 · 27 car 135 | 44 |
| Cooper Kupp WR | 56 | 78% | 6/12 for 61 | 48 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 50 | 69% | 4/10 for 27 | 14 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR | 41 | 57% | 2/5 for 27 · 1 car -5 | 22 |
| AJ Barner TE | 65 | 90% | 4/4 for 54 · 1 TD | 99 |
| George Holani RB | 24 | 33% | 1/1 for 7 · 2 car 6 | 54 |
| Sam Darnold QB | 72 | 100% | 1 car -6 | - |
| Player | Snaps | % | Production | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derick Hall LB | 35 | 49% | 2 sack · 2 hit · 2 TFL · 2 tkl | 99 |
| Byron Murphy II DL | 46 | 65% | 2 sack · 2 hit · 2 TFL · 2 tkl | 99 |
| Devon Witherspoon DB | 71 | 100% | 1 sack · 3 hit · 1 TFL · 1 PD · 4 tkl | 98 |
| Uchenna Nwosu LB | 39 | 55% | 1 hit · 1 PD · 1 INT | 89 |
| Rylie Mills DL | 5 | 7% | 1 sack · 1 hit · 1 TFL · 1 tkl | 87 |
| Julian Love DB | 71 | 100% | 1 PD · 1 INT · 2 tkl | 86 |
| Josh Jobe DB | 61 | 86% | 1 TFL · 1 PD · 6 tkl | 85 |
| Ernest Jones LB | 71 | 100% | 1 TFL · 11 tkl | 85 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence LB | 46 | 65% | 1 hit · 1 PD · 1 tkl | 74 |
| Coby Bryant DB | 71 | 100% | 1 PD · 4 tkl | 73 |
| Nick Emmanwori DB | 70 | 99% | 5 tkl | 55 |
| Boye Mafe LB | 24 | 34% | 1 hit · 1 tkl | 54 |
| DB | C/A | Yds | TD/INT | EPA | CPOE | Grade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB | 50 | 27/44 | 252 | 2/2 | -0.430 | 2.0 | 11 |