NEatSEA
Seven months after Seattle held the best offense in football to 13 points on the biggest stage, New England comes to Lumen for kickoff night. The numbers say this is the best defense in the league against the best offense in the league, and both sides changed their skill groups in the offseason. Here's what to actually watch.
| Net EPA rating, SEA | +0.151 | 3rd in NFL |
| Net EPA rating, NE | +0.198 | 2nd in NFL |
| Team rating edge, in points for SEA | -0.6 | |
| Elo, in points for SEA +141 rating pts | +3.7 | why |
| Home field, in points for SEA | +0.2 | |
| Quarterback, in points for SEA | -0.1 | why |
| Predicted margin for SEA | +3.2 | 60% to win |
Ratings are all 2025, no 2026 games played yet. Historical error on the margin is about 13 points either way, which is why a 3.2-point lean is only a 60% pick.
The model has Seattle by 3.2, and for once the model and I agree. It's worth knowing why it changed its mind: EPA per play alone said coin flip, because New England's offense was so good last year that it cancels out Seattle's defense on paper. Elo disagrees, because Elo counts January. Seattle enters this season 141 rating points ahead of New England almost entirely because of what happened in Santa Clara, and playoff wins are the thing efficiency numbers throw away.
Here's what neither can see. Defenses carry over year to year better than offenses do, and Seattle's defense returns its core: Williams, Lawrence, Nwosu, Murphy, Emmanwori, Ernest Jones. New England's offense turned over its receiver room and now has to learn A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs on the fly against the unit that held it to 13 points seven months ago. Maye's 8.7% sack rate was the crack in that offense all year, and Macdonald's disguise got to him six times in the Super Bowl. Add that Macdonald is year three into a scheme that finished 2nd and 1st in his previous two second years, and this is a bad week to be a new receiver corps.
On the other side, Seattle's offense has its own problems. The run game was 21st before Walker left, and Charbonnet may not play. Darnold's 14 interceptions are the reason this isn't a comfortable pick. If he gives it away twice, New England wins anyway.
I'll stay at 23-20 rather than chase the model up to 25. The market has this at 44.5 total and I think that's right: two top-five scoring defenses, offenses with new parts, a Wednesday night crowd that's going to be deafening. Low twenties both sides, Seattle by a field goal, and the unit that didn't change decides it.
Four inputs. Team ratings: EPA per play on offense and allowed on defense, blending the current season with last season, last season fading as games get played. Elo: a running rating that moves with margin of victory and reverts partway each offseason, including playoff results. Quarterback: opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback for tonight's starter, measured against the team's own recent baseline so nobody gets counted twice. Home field. The margin is a straight line through those; the total is a straight line through both offenses and defenses; win probability is how often a margin that size holds up given the historical error. Fit on 1,855 regular season games, 2019 to 2025.
Not in the model: injuries other than at quarterback, offseason roster changes, weather, rest and travel, coaching, anything that happened after the last snap of the stat season. Read the conclusion for those.
Backtest, leaving each season out and predicting it with the others:
| games | picks | miss | market | |
| weeks 1-3 | 333 | 64% | 9.7 | 63% |
| weeks 4-9 | 608 | 65% | 10.2 | 66% |
| weeks 10+ | 914 | 66% | 10.2 | 68% |
| all | 1855 | 65% | 10.2 | 66% |
Picks = share of games where the model's favorite won. Miss = average error on the margin, in points. Market = the same pick rate for the closing betting line.
Translation: it picks the winner about 65% of the time and misses the margin by 10 points on average. The betting market picks 66%, so this is within about a point and a half of Vegas. In weeks 1 through 3 it actually edges the market, 64% to 63%, because early lines are guessing from last year too. Expect it to be wrong about one week in three, and don't bet on it.
Elo is a running rating that moves after every game by how much you won or lost by and how surprising the result was. Beat a much better team by a lot and you take a big chunk of their rating. It reverts partway toward average each offseason, because rosters change.
It catches things EPA per play does not. EPA measures how efficiently you moved the ball; Elo measures whether you actually won, including in January. Seattle enters this season +141 Elo points ahead of New England largely because of what happened in February, and that is worth +3.7 points tonight. Playoff games count.
Team EPA ratings already contain whatever the quarterback did, so you cannot just add "good QB" on top or you count him twice. Instead the model rates tonight's starter against the team's own recent quarterback baseline. Same guy as usual, no adjustment. Backup in for an injured starter, big adjustment. A rating travels with the quarterback when he changes teams, which is the entire point.
Both teams are starting the same quarterback they have been starting, so this adjustment is zero tonight. That is the correct answer, not a broken feature. D.Maye rates +0.086 EPA per dropback above S.Darnold, and that gap is already inside New England's team rating. Adding it again would count him twice.
The coefficient is +20.2 points per unit of EPA per dropback. A backup who is 0.10 worse than the starter costs his team about 2.0 points.
The same regression rates defenses. Hardest to throw on: CLE (-0.16), PHI (-0.16), MIN (-0.15). Easiest: WAS (+0.06), TEN (+0.05), ARI (+0.03). Those numbers are what gets divided out of each quarterback.
It assumes the listed starter plays. If that changes before kickoff, so does this number.
Model 0-0 · HQ call 0-0
| Game | Model | HQ call | Result |
| Wk 1 NE at SEA · S.Darnold v D.Maye | SEA 25.5, NE 22.4 | SEA 23, NE 20 | pending |
Model predictions lock the first time a week is built and never get edited after. The HQ call can change until kickoff.
Ten things to look for tonight, built from last season's play-by-play plus what changed in the offseason. Read it before kickoff, keep it open during.
Maye holds the ball and the pocket starts to close.
Does he escape, and do Seattle's edge rushers stay in their lanes or chase upfield and let him out?
Maye scrambled on 11.5% of his dropbacks last year, second most in the league, and took a sack on 8.7%, 24th. Seattle sacked him six times in the Super Bowl. If the rush lanes stay disciplined, he has nowhere to go. If they don't, he's the most dangerous scrambler they'll face all year.
DERIVEDSeattle shows four down linemen and drops seven, then one of them backs out at the snap and a linebacker comes.
Where the fifth rusher comes from and who vacates a zone to cover for him.
Seattle blitzed on just 24.7% of dropbacks, eighth lowest in the league, and averaged 4.24 rushers, seventh fewest. It still led the league in defensive EPA. That means the pressure comes from disguise, not numbers. The tell is pre-snap movement in the second level, not the line.
AI READMaye takes a deep shot in the first quarter.
Whether the target is Brown or Doubs, and who Seattle has on him. Witherspoon travelling is a game plan tell.
Maye's average throw traveled 9.2 yards downfield last year, second deepest in the league, and 14.3% of his attempts went 20+. Quarterbacks facing Seattle threw the shortest average pass in the league (6.6 yards). Something gives on the first deep ball. Brown had 121 targets and 1,003 yards in Philadelphia. Doubs had 86 targets in Green Bay. Diggs, who had 20% of New England's targets, is in Washington.
DERIVEDNew England goes no-huddle.
Whether Seattle's defense gets set and communicates the disguise, or defaults to a simple call.
New England went no-huddle on 2.3% of plays last year, the lowest rate in the NFL. But opponents used tempo against Seattle 15.2% of the time, second most in the league, precisely because tempo takes away the disguise game. Both of Maye's fourth quarter interceptions in the Super Bowl came out of no-huddle. If Vrabel opens with tempo, he studied the tape.
AI READNew England hands off into a box with eight defenders.
Whether they keep doing it in the second quarter.
New England ran into a loaded box on 21.6% of its carries last year, second most in the league, and ranked 24th in rushing EPA anyway. Seattle's run defense was first in EPA and first in success rate. Count the Henderson and Stevenson carries in the first quarter. If it's under six, Vrabel has already conceded the ground game and this is a pure dropback contest.
DERIVEDSeattle runs on first down and gets three yards or fewer.
Whether the play caller keeps feeding the run, and who's carrying it.
Seattle's pass offense was eighth in EPA and fourth in success rate last year, but Seattle threw 4.1% less often than expected on neutral early downs, seventh most run-leaning in the league, with a run game that ranked 21st. Kenneth Walker (221 carries) is in Kansas City now. Charbonnet's status in the roster feed is not active as of this build. Emanuel Wilson (125 carries in Green Bay) and rookie Jadarian Price are the names to learn. The backfield is the biggest unknown on the field.
DERIVEDDarnold fakes a handoff.
Smith-Njigba on the crossing route behind the linebackers.
Seattle used play action on 25.2% of dropbacks, 11th most. Smith-Njigba's 33.7% target share was the highest in the NFL last year (163 targets, 1,793 yards, 10 TDs). New England's linebackers bit on play action at a 24.7% rate last year, 10th most faced. This is the one matchup where Seattle's offense has a clear structural edge.
DERIVEDSeattle crosses the 20.
Personnel. Is Barner on the field, and who's the goal line back?
Seattle scored a touchdown on 57.7% of red zone trips, 21st. New England allowed a touchdown on 66.7% of red zone trips, 25th. Barner had six touchdowns. Charbonnet had 12 rushing touchdowns and may not play. One of these two mediocre red zone units is going to look good tonight, and it decides whether Seattle gets sevens or Myers threes.
DERIVEDA one-score game in the fourth quarter.
The turnover margin. Nothing else.
Seattle gave the ball away 1.53 times per game last year, 31st in the league, and Darnold threw 14 interceptions. Seattle's defense took it away 1.53 times per game, fourth best. Those cancel out most weeks. In the Super Bowl they didn't: zero Seattle giveaways, three New England turnovers, 16-point win. This game is decided by whether Darnold's giveaways come back.
DERIVEDFourth and short, either side of midfield.
New England go for it. Then watch Seattle's response when the situation flips.
New England converted 72% of fourth downs last year, second in the league, and its defense allowed just 33%, also second. Seattle converted 58% (15th) and allowed 52% (12th). Vrabel will be aggressive. Macdonald has the better defense to punish it. Every fourth down tonight is a swing play.
DERIVEDRank is out of 32. For the top rows, Seattle's defense is measured against New England's offense on the same stat, and vice versa below.
Strengths: epa per play (1st), pass epa per dropback (1st), explosive play rate (2nd).
Weaknesses: rush epa per carry (24th), sack rate taken (24th), red zone td rate (11th).
Strengths: 4th down conversion allowed (2nd), points allowed per game (4th), points per drive allowed (7th).
Weaknesses: red zone td rate allowed (25th), takeaways per game (20th), sack rate generated (20th).
| EPA per play | +0.157 | 1st | lg +0.013 |
| Success rate | 48.4% | 4th | lg 44.3% |
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.306 | 1st | lg +0.043 |
| Rush EPA per carry | -0.084 | 24th | lg -0.063 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9% | 2nd | lg 12.1% |
| 3rd down conversion | 43.6% | 6th | lg 39.9% |
| 4th down conversion | 72.0% | 2nd | lg 55.9% |
| Red zone TD rate | 62.8% | 11th | lg 60.5% |
| Points per drive | 2.72 | 2nd | lg 2.16 |
| Points per game | 28.8 | 2nd | lg 23.0 |
| Giveaways per game | 0.94 | 10th | lg 1.10 |
| Sack rate taken | 7.8% | 24th | lg 6.5% |
| Pass rate over expected | +3.9 | 6th highest | lg -0.9 |
| Avg depth of target | 9.2 | 2nd highest | lg 7.8 |
| Deep throw rate (20+) | 14.3% | 3rd highest | lg 11.5% |
| QB scramble rate | 10.4% | 2nd highest | lg 5.9% |
| Play action rate | 24.1% | 15th highest | lg 23.2% |
| Screen rate | 4.2% | 32nd highest | lg 7.8% |
| Pre-snap motion rate | 52.5% | 21st highest | lg 54.9% |
| No-huddle rate | 2.3% | 32nd highest | lg 9.9% |
| Runs into 8+ box | 21.6% | 2nd highest | lg 8.7% |
| Blitz rate faced | 31.1% | 12th highest | lg 29.5% |
| Avg pass rushers faced | 4.37 | 5th highest | lg 4.30 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.041 | 11th | lg +0.014 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9% | 18th | lg 44.3% |
| Pass EPA allowed | -0.038 | 11th | lg +0.043 |
| Rush EPA allowed | -0.079 | 15th | lg -0.061 |
| Explosive rate allowed | 11.9% | 15th | lg 12.1% |
| 3rd down conversion allowed | 38.7% | 12th | lg 40.0% |
| 4th down conversion allowed | 33.3% | 2nd | lg 55.7% |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 66.7% | 25th | lg 60.6% |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.83 | 7th | lg 2.16 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8 | 4th | lg 23.0 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.06 | 20th | lg 1.10 |
| Sack rate generated | 5.9% | 20th | lg 6.5% |
| Pass rate over expected faced | -1.3 | 19th highest | lg -0.7 |
| Avg depth of target faced | 7.4 | 25th highest | lg 7.8 |
| Deep throw rate faced | 10.8% | 18th highest | lg 11.5% |
| QB scramble rate faced | 5.1% | 24th highest | lg 5.9% |
| Play action rate faced | 24.7% | 10th highest | lg 23.2% |
| Screen rate faced | 7.8% | 17th highest | lg 7.8% |
| Motion rate faced | 57.6% | 11th highest | lg 54.9% |
| No-huddle rate faced | 8.7% | 21st highest | lg 9.8% |
| Runs faced with 8+ box | 10.1% | 11th highest | lg 8.8% |
| Blitz rate | 27.4% | 19th highest | lg 29.4% |
| Avg pass rushers sent | 4.33 | 13th highest | lg 4.30 |
Strengths: points per game (3rd), explosive play rate (6th), success rate (7th).
Weaknesses: giveaways per game (31st), rush epa per carry (21st), red zone td rate (21st).
Strengths: epa per play allowed (1st), rush epa allowed (1st), explosive rate allowed (1st).
Weaknesses: sack rate generated (13th), 4th down conversion allowed (12th), pass epa allowed (6th).
| EPA per play | +0.039 | 12th | lg +0.013 |
| Success rate | 46.7% | 7th | lg 44.3% |
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.121 | 8th | lg +0.043 |
| Rush EPA per carry | -0.076 | 21st | lg -0.063 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% | 6th | lg 12.1% |
| 3rd down conversion | 40.6% | 15th | lg 39.9% |
| 4th down conversion | 58.3% | 15th | lg 55.9% |
| Red zone TD rate | 57.7% | 21st | lg 60.5% |
| Points per drive | 2.52 | 8th | lg 2.16 |
| Points per game | 28.4 | 3rd | lg 23.0 |
| Giveaways per game | 1.53 | 31st | lg 1.10 |
| Sack rate taken | 5.2% | 9th | lg 6.5% |
| Pass rate over expected | -4.1 | 26th highest | lg -0.9 |
| Avg depth of target | 7.9 | 16th highest | lg 7.8 |
| Deep throw rate (20+) | 11.1% | 18th highest | lg 11.5% |
| QB scramble rate | 2.9% | 26th highest | lg 5.9% |
| Play action rate | 25.2% | 11th highest | lg 23.2% |
| Screen rate | 6.0% | 24th highest | lg 7.8% |
| Pre-snap motion rate | 56.9% | 13th highest | lg 54.9% |
| No-huddle rate | 7.3% | 16th highest | lg 9.9% |
| Runs into 8+ box | 7.9% | 12th highest | lg 8.7% |
| Blitz rate faced | 31.5% | 11th highest | lg 29.5% |
| Avg pass rushers faced | 4.39 | 3rd highest | lg 4.30 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.111 | 1st | lg +0.014 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1% | 3rd | lg 44.3% |
| Pass EPA allowed | -0.075 | 6th | lg +0.043 |
| Rush EPA allowed | -0.207 | 1st | lg -0.061 |
| Explosive rate allowed | 8.5% | 1st | lg 12.1% |
| 3rd down conversion allowed | 32.2% | 1st | lg 40.0% |
| 4th down conversion allowed | 52.3% | 12th | lg 55.7% |
| Red zone TD rate allowed | 50.0% | 3rd | lg 60.6% |
| Points per drive allowed | 1.51 | 1st | lg 2.16 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.2 | 1st | lg 23.0 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.53 | 4th | lg 1.10 |
| Sack rate generated | 6.8% | 13th | lg 6.5% |
| Pass rate over expected faced | +1.1 | 12th highest | lg -0.7 |
| Avg depth of target faced | 6.6 | 32nd highest | lg 7.8 |
| Deep throw rate faced | 10.8% | 19th highest | lg 11.5% |
| QB scramble rate faced | 6.8% | 8th highest | lg 5.9% |
| Play action rate faced | 21.4% | 24th highest | lg 23.2% |
| Screen rate faced | 8.2% | 13th highest | lg 7.8% |
| Motion rate faced | 53.7% | 20th highest | lg 54.9% |
| No-huddle rate faced | 15.2% | 2nd highest | lg 9.8% |
| Runs faced with 8+ box | 5.0% | 27th highest | lg 8.8% |
| Blitz rate | 24.7% | 25th highest | lg 29.4% |
| Avg pass rushers sent | 4.24 | 26th highest | lg 4.30 |
Greyed-out names have moved on. Roster snapshot is from nflverse on the build date and may predate final cuts, so trust the game broadcast over this table.
| TreVeyon Henderson RB | 42 tgt · 221 yds · 1 TD 180 car · 911 yds · 9 TD 44% of carries |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | 38 tgt · 347 yds · 2 TD 131 car · 605 yds · 7 TD 32% of carries |
| Stefon Diggs WR now WAS | 102 tgt · 1013 yds · 4 TD 20% of targets |
| Hunter Henry TE | 87 tgt · 768 yds · 7 TD 17% of targets |
| Mack Hollins WR | 65 tgt · 550 yds · 2 TD 13% of targets |
| DeMario Douglas WR | 46 tgt · 447 yds · 3 TD |
| Kayshon Boutte WR now HOU | 46 tgt · 551 yds · 6 TD |
| Austin Hooper TE now ATL | 26 tgt · 263 yds · 2 TD |
| Kyle Williams WR | 21 tgt · 209 yds · 3 TD |
| A.J. Brown WR from PHI | 121 tgt · 1003 yds |
| Romeo Doubs WR from GB | 86 tgt · 726 yds |
| Harold Landry III LB | 8.5 sacks · 19 QB hits · 10 TFL |
| Marcus Jones DB | 2 sacks · 3 INT · 11 PD · 8 TFL |
| Milton Williams DL | 3.5 sacks · 8 QB hits · 8 TFL |
| Elijah Ponder LB | 4 sacks · 5 QB hits |
| Robert Spillane LB | 1 sacks · 2 INT · 5 PD |
| Kenneth Walker III RB now KC | 36 tgt · 282 yds · 0 TD 221 car · 1027 yds · 5 TD 45% of carries |
| Zach Charbonnet RB status A02 | 24 tgt · 144 yds · 0 TD 184 car · 730 yds · 12 TD 37% of carries |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 163 tgt · 1793 yds · 10 TD 34% of targets |
| AJ Barner TE | 68 tgt · 519 yds · 6 TD 14% of targets |
| Cooper Kupp WR | 71 tgt · 595 yds · 2 TD 15% of targets |
| Rashid Shaheed WR | 26 tgt · 188 yds · 0 TD |
| Elijah Arroyo TE | 26 tgt · 179 yds · 1 TD |
| Tory Horton WR | 22 tgt · 161 yds · 5 TD |
| Emanuel Wilson RB from GB | 125 car · 496 yds |
| Rashid Shaheed WR from NO | 92 tgt · 687 yds |
| Leonard Williams DL | 7 sacks · 22 QB hits · 9 TFL |
| DeMarcus Lawrence LB | 6 sacks · 20 QB hits · 11 TFL |
| Uchenna Nwosu LB | 7 sacks · 15 QB hits · 7 TFL |
| Drake Thomas LB | 3.5 sacks · 6 QB hits · 1 INT · 8 PD · 10 TFL |
| Byron Murphy II DL | 7 sacks · 13 QB hits · 7 TFL |
| Nick Emmanwori DB | 2.5 sacks · 1 INT · 11 PD · 9 TFL |
| Ernest Jones LB | 0.5 sacks · 5 INT · 7 PD |
Macdonald leads 2-0, counting the game where he ran a defense instead of a team.
| 2023 Wk 6 Macdonald as defensive coordinator | BAL 24 at TEN 16 | Macdonald |
| 2025 Super Bowl both head coaches | SEA 29 at NE 13 | Macdonald |
Defensive rank in every season we can attribute to him, head coaching or coordinating.
| 2022 BAL defensive coord | 10-8* | 14th defense |
| 2023 BAL defensive coord | 14-5* | 2nd defense |
| 2024 SEA | 10-7 | 10th defense |
| 2025 SEA | 17-3* | 1st defense |
His teams' offensive rank, since that's what New England is now built around.
| 2018 TEN | 9-7 | 24th offense |
| 2019 TEN | 11-8* | 6th offense |
| 2020 TEN | 11-6* | 2nd offense |
| 2021 TEN | 12-6* | 15th offense |
| 2022 TEN | 7-10 | 25th offense |
| 2023 TEN | 6-11 | 15th offense |
| 2025 NE | 17-4* | 1st offense |
Look at the two-year pattern. Macdonald's first year running a defense in Baltimore finished 14th. His second year finished 2nd, and he won assistant coach of the year. His first year in Seattle finished 10th. His second year finished 1st, and he won a Super Bowl. Both times the scheme took a season to install and then took over the league. This is year three of the same system with mostly the same personnel, and it's the first time he's ever had that.
Vrabel's record is longer and more mixed. His Titans peaked early, with the 6th and 2nd ranked offenses in 2019 and 2020 behind a punishing run game, then slid to 25th and 15th as the roster aged out. He got fired after back to back losing seasons, sat a year, and rebuilt in New England around a young quarterback instead of a running back. The 2025 Patriots had the best offense in football and a defense that finished 11th. Whatever else you say about him, the man has range.
The head to head is small but not meaningless. Macdonald is 2-0 against Vrabel: once as a coordinator in 2023, when his Ravens defense held Vrabel's Titans to 16, and once in February with the whole thing on the line.
Head coaching records from the nflverse schedule file (coach fields go back to 1999). Coordinator and position-coach years are hand-entered from team bios and are labeled as such. A coordinator does not own a team's win-loss record, so those rows show the unit he ran. Asterisk means the team made the playoffs that season.
| SEA | NE | |
| EPA per play | -0.052 | -0.305 |
| Success rate | 33% | 41% |
| Explosive rate | 15% | 10% |
| Giveaways | 0 | 3 |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 6 |
Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara. Five Jason Myers field goals, a Darnold to Barner touchdown, and a 45-yard Nwosu pick-six. Seattle's offense was ordinary (-0.05 EPA per play) but never turned it over. New England's offense, the best in football all year, was held to -0.31 EPA per play, took six sacks, and gave it away three times: a strip sack with 16 seconds left in the third, then two fourth quarter interceptions out of no-huddle. That's the blueprint, and Vrabel has had seven months to study it.
Expected Points Added. Every down, distance, and field position has an expected point value. EPA is how much a play moved that number. Positive is good for the offense. Average it over a season and you get the single best measure of how good a unit actually is, because it credits a 4-yard gain on 3rd and 3 more than a 4-yard gain on 3rd and 10.
Tonight: Seattle's defense allowed -0.111 EPA per play last year. Every snap, the opponent's expected points went down by about a tenth of a point. Over 1,000 plays that's the difference between the best defense in the league and an average one.
The share of plays that gained enough to stay on schedule: roughly 40% of the distance on first down, 60% on second, 100% on third and fourth. It measures consistency where EPA measures impact. A team can have great EPA from a few explosive plays and a bad success rate, which usually means it's boom or bust.
Tonight: New England's passing game was first in both. Seattle's run game was 21st in EPA and 23rd in success rate, which is why the pass has to carry the offense.
Given the down, distance, score, and clock, how often would an average team throw here? PROE is how much more or less a team actually throws than that. It tells you the play caller's personality, not just his situation.
Tonight: Seattle was -4.1 on neutral early downs last year, meaning it ran more than the situation called for. New England was +3.9. Same record, opposite philosophies.
The defense shows five or six potential rushers before the snap, then sends four, but not the four you expected. A lineman drops into coverage and a linebacker or safety comes instead. The quarterback's protection was set for the wrong people. You get blitz-like confusion with zone-coverage numbers behind it.
Tonight: This is the Macdonald signature. Seattle rushed fewer players than almost anyone and still finished first in defensive EPA. The pressure comes from the offense blocking the wrong guy.
aDOT. How far past the line of scrimmage the ball travels on an average throw. High aDOT means an aggressive, downfield passing game. Low aDOT means quick game and checkdowns. Defenses can force a low aDOT by taking away the deep ball and making the quarterback settle.
Tonight: Maye's 9.2 was the second highest in the league. Quarterbacks facing Seattle averaged 6.6, the lowest. Tonight's first deep ball tells you which one bends.
The number of defenders lined up within roughly five yards of the line of scrimmage before a run. Seven is standard. Eight or more is a loaded box: the defense is daring you to throw. The offense's answer to a loaded box is play action or a quick throw to the vacated area.
Tonight: New England saw eight-man boxes on 21.6% of its runs last year, second most in the league, because defenses would rather stop Henderson than cover Maye's receivers with an extra man. It still worked because Maye punished it.