The first numbers and an honest check against the original Game Prep Sheet. Personal thoughts coming later.
| Model MODEL | SEA 25.5, NE 22.4 | winner right margin 0.1 off · total 24.9 high |
| Final VERIFIED | SEA 13, NE 10 | |
| HQ call AI READ | SEA 23, NE 20 | winner right margin exact · total 20.0 high |
The short version: we were right about where this game would be decided and way too high on the scoring haha. Both predictions picked Seattle by a field goal. The game gave us exactly that and almost none of the offense we expected.
The clearest hit was also the simplest thing on the original sheet: if it was a one-score game in the fourth quarter, watch the turnover margin and nothing else. Seattle did not give the ball away, New England threw three fourth-quarter interceptions, and that was the game.
An honest check against the pregame watch list. Scheme and personnel details stay provisional until their source feeds publish.
Maye escaped six times for 44 yards, with four of those scrambles coming before halftime. Seattle recorded all three of its sacks in the fourth quarter. The concern showed up early, then Seattle finally closed the pocket late.
DERIVEDThe NFL review found that New England handled Seattle's exotic pressures early and that the aggression finally paid off late. The exact fifth rusher and coverage rotation still need FTN charting before we call them measured.
AI READThere was no first-quarter deep shot, so the timing call missed. Maye finished 0-for-4 with two interceptions on throws traveling at least 20 yards. The wider Seattle-versus-depth read landed hard.
AI READNew England recorded zero no-huddle plays. Vrabel never tried the tempo answer we were watching for.
DERIVEDThe loaded-box count is not available yet, but New England did not abandon the run. Rhamondre Stevenson and Corey Kiner combined for 24 carries and 62 yards. The run-defense advantage showed up even though the Patriots kept testing it.
DERIVEDSeattle called 10 designed first-down runs and 11 first-down dropbacks. Jadarian Price was the useful answer, finishing with 10 carries for 52 yards. Seattle stayed balanced instead of blindly leaning on an inefficient run game.
DERIVEDDarnold's injury erased the exact quarterback cue. Lock still found the matchup we liked, hitting JSN for a 45-yard touchdown from a run-action look on fourth-and-1. JSN finished with eight catches for 122 yards and the score.
AI READBarner played 44 of Seattle's 50 offensive snaps, though the feed does not isolate red-zone personnel. Seattle reached the red zone twice, scored zero touchdowns, and settled for Jason Myers field goals from 30 and 26 yards. A Cooper Kupp touchdown was erased by an illegal shift. The warning was sevens versus threes, and Seattle got threes.
VERIFIEDSeattle had zero giveaways. Maye threw three interceptions, all in the fourth quarter. The first two produced Seattle's final 10 points and the third ended the game. Seattle won by three with a plus-three turnover margin.
VERIFIEDVrabel punted in two reasonable first-half spots, then New England converted both of its fourth downs in the fourth quarter. Seattle's only official attempt was Lock's 45-yard touchdown to JSN on fourth-and-1. The aggression call was mixed, but the leverage call was right.
AI READ| Neutral early-down pass rate | 51.6% |
| Pass rate over expected | -3.6 |
| 1st down pass rate | 52.4% |
| 2nd down pass rate | 50.0% |
| 3rd down pass rate | 75.0% |
| Shotgun rate | 51.0% |
| Avg depth of target | 6.4 |
| Neutral early-down pass rate | 50.0% |
| Pass rate over expected | -5.3 |
| 1st down pass rate | 41.4% |
| 2nd down pass rate | 65.2% |
| 3rd down pass rate | 88.2% |
| Shotgun rate | 54.9% |
| Avg depth of target | 6.7 |
Personnel groupings and formations are not in this section because nflverse participation data publishes after the postseason, not during the season. It will fill in here once the year is complete.
Opening-week grades are provisional because the season comparison pool is still small.
| Quarterback | DB | C/A | Yds | TD/INT | EPA | CPOE | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock QB | 24 | 16/22 | 187 | 1/0 | +0.341 | 4.8 | 100 |
| Sam Darnold QB | 3 | 1/2 | 13 | 0/0 | -0.692 | -24.2 | - |
| Skill | Snaps | % | Production | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadarian Price RB | 24 | 48% | 2/2 for 6 · 10 car 52 | 58 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 45 | 90% | 8/11 for 122 · 1 TD | 92 |
| George Holani RB | 23 | 46% | 0/1 for 0 · 8 car 29 | 42 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR | 33 | 66% | 1/3 for 4 | 8 |
| Cooper Kupp WR | 39 | 78% | 2/3 for 35 | 75 |
| Brady Russell RB | 17 | 34% | 2/2 for 20 | - |
| AJ Barner TE | 44 | 88% | 2/2 for 13 | - |
| Emanuel Wilson RB | 3 | 6% | 2 car 3 | - |
Opening-week grades are provisional because the season comparison pool is still small.
| Player | Snaps | % | Production | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julian Love DB | 71 | 100% | 2 TFL · 1 PD · 1 INT · 5 tkl | 100 |
| Josh Jobe DB | 70 | 99% | 1 TFL · 1 PD · 1 INT · 5 tkl | 91 |
| Drake Thomas LB | 71 | 100% | 1 sack · 1 hit · 1 TFL · 6 tkl | 88 |
| Nehemiah Pritchett DB | 53 | 75% | 2 PD · 1 INT · 5 tkl | 88 |
| Leonard Williams DL | 49 | 69% | 1 sack · 1 hit · 1 TFL · 3 tkl | 78 |
| Derick Hall LB | 44 | 62% | 1 sack · 1 hit · 1 TFL · 2 tkl | 78 |
| Uchenna Nwosu LB | 33 | 46% | 1 TFL · 1 PD · 4 tkl | 75 |
| Ernest Jones LB | 71 | 100% | 12 tkl | 72 |
| Rodney Thomas DB | 70 | 99% | 1 PD · 3 tkl | 62 |
| Rylie Mills DL | 16 | 23% | 1 TFL · 2 tkl | 56 |
| Byron Murphy II DL | 50 | 70% | 1 TFL · 2 tkl | 56 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence LB | 42 | 59% | 1 hit · 3 tkl | 53 |
| DB | C/A | Yds | TD/INT | EPA | CPOE | Grade | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB | 42 | 23/33 | 178 | 1/3 | +0.066 | 6.0 | 50 |