Seattle 1-0Arizona 1-0 Sunday, September 20 · 1:25 pm PT / 4:25 pm ET · State Farm Stadium · FOX
Mike Macdonald vs Mike LaFleur · Drew Lock starts for Seattle
Nine straight. Now prove it again.
Seattle has won nine straight against Arizona, but the Cardinals opened the Mike LaFleur era with a 26-14 road win over the Chargers. Arizona controlled the ball for 37:31, gained 393 yards, ran 72 plays and did not turn it over. Seattle comes in 1-0 with its defense still deciding games and Drew Lock making the start for the injured Sam Darnold.
Seattle ran only 48 offensive plays in Week 1. Arizona ran 72. Possession and early-down efficiency are the first things to watch.
Jacoby Brissett went 27-of-37 for 277 yards with no interceptions. Trey McBride caught nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown.
Lock went 16-of-22 for 187 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions after Darnold left the opener.
Same model framework as Week 1: prior-season team efficiency fades as current-season data arrives, with Elo, home field and quarterback adjustment layered in. Week 1 still receives limited weight because one game is noisy.
The read
Arizona earned attention in Week 1. The Cardinals did not steal the game with one play. They held a 21-snap advantage, gained 125 more yards than the Chargers and played turnover-free football.
Seattle's matchup advantage still starts with the defensive front. Arizona averaged under four yards per running-back carry, while Seattle opened 2026 by crushing New England's run game. If the Seahawks stop the run without crowding the box, Macdonald gets more coverage answers for McBride.
The variable is Lock. Seattle needs longer possessions than it had in the opener. If Lock protects the ball and Seattle gets JSN involved early, the defense should not need three fourth-quarter interceptions to finish the game.
Season prediction record
Wk 1 vs NE
Model SEA 25.5-22.4
Final SEA 13-10
winner right
Wk 2 at ARI
Model SEA 22.8-18.6
Jesse SEA 24-10
pending
Week 2 · Game day
Game Day Prep Sheet
Matchups, tendencies, stats and ten things to keep open while Seattle plays Arizona.
Ten things to keep open during the game. Week 2 blends the 2025 baseline with what both teams showed in their 2026 openers.
01
If you see
Arizona starts by feeding Trey McBride.
Watch
Who owns the middle of the field, especially with Nick Emmanwori still limited in practice.
Why it matters
McBride caught nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Brissett wants a dependable answer inside, and Seattle's safety health changes how aggressively the defense can rotate coverage toward him.
VERIFIED
02
If you see
Brissett keeps getting the ball out before pressure arrives.
Watch
Whether Seattle changes his first read instead of only trying to win faster up front.
Why it matters
Arizona's Week 1 offense lived in rhythm. Seattle's simulated-pressure game works best when the protection and quarterback identify different threats before the snap.
AI READ
03
If you see
Arizona's guards start shuffling bodies.
Watch
Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy inside, especially on third-and-medium.
Why it matters
Left guard Isaac Seumalo is dealing with a shoulder injury and right guard Isaiah Adams is working back from a knee injury. Both were limited Thursday. That is the cleanest injury-to-matchup connection on Arizona's side.
VERIFIED
04
If you see
Seattle goes three-and-out early.
Watch
The total snap count and Arizona's possession time, not only the score.
Why it matters
Seattle ran only 48 plays in Week 1. Arizona ran 72 and held the ball for 37:31. Seattle does not want its defense absorbing another 65 to 70 snaps.
VERIFIED
05
If you see
Lock gets an early first-down play-action throw.
Watch
Whether JSN is the first read and whether Arizona's linebackers step toward the run fake.
Why it matters
Lock was efficient in relief, and Seattle's biggest offensive play in Week 1 was his 45-yard touchdown to JSN from a run-action look on fourth-and-1.
AI READ
06
If you see
Seattle keeps handing it off into a crowded front.
Watch
Whether the run is earning another carry or only setting up the next throw.
Why it matters
Seattle's Week 1 rush efficiency was poor even though Jadarian Price averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Arizona's defense also held the Chargers to 81 rushing yards.
DERIVED
07
If you see
JSN starts winning immediately.
Watch
How quickly Arizona rolls help toward him and who becomes Seattle's second answer.
Why it matters
JSN opened the year with eight catches for 122 yards and the touchdown. Cooper Kupp upgraded to full participation Thursday, while Tory Horton has practiced in full both days.
VERIFIED
08
If you see
Arizona keeps reaching second-and-short.
Watch
Whether Seattle is losing to quick throws or giving up efficient runs.
Why it matters
Arizona's opener worked because it stayed on schedule. Seattle's best response is forcing Brissett into obvious passing downs where the disguise package has more value.
AI READ
09
If you see
The game is still within one score in the fourth quarter.
Watch
Turnover margin before anything else.
Why it matters
Seattle won Week 1 with zero giveaways and three takeaways. Arizona also played turnover-free football while taking the ball away twice. Both teams just won with the clean version of the same formula.
VERIFIED
10
If you see
Arizona hangs around despite losing the efficiency battle.
Watch
Special teams and short fields.
Why it matters
Arizona blocked a punt in Week 1 and turned it into a touchdown from the Chargers' 3-yard line. In a low-scoring divisional game, one short field changes the script.
VERIFIED
The matchupWeek 1 data plus the 2025 baseline
SEA
ARI
Week 1 points
13
26
Week 1 points allowed
10
14
Week 1 total yards
285
393
Week 1 yards/play
5.9
5.5
Week 1 offensive plays
48
72
Week 1 turnovers
0
0
2025 context
Seattle points/game
28.4
3rd
Seattle points allowed/game
17.2
1st
Arizona points/game
22
2025
Arizona points allowed/game
29
2025
Arizona's opener is meaningful evidence of improvement. It is still one game, so the preview keeps the 2025 sample visible instead of replacing it.
Sunday morning injury reportUpdated September 20
Sam Darnold, Ty Okada and Anthony Bradford are out. Drew Lock starts. Nick Emmanwori remains questionable. Tory Horton, Cooper Kupp, Josh Jobe and Josh Jones carry no game designation.
Seattle
Sam DarnoldQB · glute
OUT Drew Lock starts
Ty OkadaS · hamstring
OUT
Anthony BradfordG · knee/hip
OUT Christian Haynes next up
Nick EmmanworiS · ankle/hip
QUESTIONABLE
Josh JonesG/T · knee
NO DESIGNATION
Cooper KuppWR · back
NO DESIGNATION
Tory HortonWR · hamstring
NO DESIGNATION
Josh JobeCB · wrist
NO DESIGNATION
Arizona
Roy LopezDT · groin
QUESTIONABLE
Isaac SeumaloG · shoulder
QUESTIONABLE
Isaiah AdamsG · knee
QUESTIONABLE
Andrew BillingsDT · knee
QUESTIONABLE
Jack GibbensLB · shoulder
Limited
Max MeltonCB · ankle
QUESTIONABLE
Cody SimonLB · shoulder
Limited
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS · ribs
QUESTIONABLE
Garrett WilliamsCB · Achilles
OUT
Trey McBrideTE · back/rest
Full Thu
Budda BakerS · rest
Full Thu
Josh SweatLB · rest
Full Thu
ArizonaWhat Week 1 changed
Offense
Week 1: 393 yards, 72 plays, 5.5 yards per play, 37:31 possession, zero turnovers. Identity: Brissett rhythm passing, McBride volume, enough run game to stay on schedule.
Defense
Week 1: 268 yards allowed, 51 plays, two takeaways, 14 points allowed. Context: Arizona allowed 29 points per game in 2025, so one strong opener is evidence, not a finished identity.
Jacoby Brissett
27/37C/A277YDS1/0TD/INT7.5Y/A
Trey McBrideTE
9 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD
Kendrick BourneWR
8 rec · 75 yds
Michael WilsonWR
5 rec · 56 yds
Tyler AllgeierRB
17 car · 61 yds
Jeremiyah LoveRB
11 car · 41 yds · 1 TD
SeattleWeek 1 self scout
Offense
Good: 5.9 yards per play, no turnovers, Lock and JSN created the explosive play Seattle needed. Problem: 48 plays and only two third-down conversions.
Defense
Good: three takeaways, three sacks, dominant run defense. Problem: the unit played 67 New England snaps and needed a fourth-quarter takeover.
Drew Lock
16/22C/A187YDS1/0TD/INT8.5Y/A
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
8 rec · 122 yds · 1 TD
Jadarian PriceRB
10 car · 52 yds
Cooper KuppWR
2 rec · 35 yds
Julian LoveS
INT · 2 TFL
Josh JobeCB
INT · PD · TFL
Nehemiah PritchettCB
INT · 2 PD
Players to knowThe matchup through Week 1
Seattle
Drew LockQB
First 2026 start · efficient relief win in Wk 1
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR
11 targets · 122 yds · TD
Jadarian PriceRB
10 carries · 52 yds
Leonard WilliamsDL
Interior matchup gets bigger with ARI guard injuries
Nick EmmanworiS
Limited Thu · ankle/hip
Arizona
Jacoby BrissettQB
27/37 · 277 · TD · 0 INT
Trey McBrideTE
9 rec · 95 yds · TD
Tyler AllgeierRB
17 carries · 61 yds
Jeremiyah LoveRB
11 carries · 41 yds · TD
Budda BakerS
Full Thu after rest day
Josh SweatLB
Full Thu after rest day
The coachesEstablished system versus a new Arizona era
Mike Macdonald
“Run it forward.”
Week 2 mindset
Seattle
Mike Macdonald
Year 3 in Seattle · defending Super Bowl champion · 1-0 in 2026
Arizona
Mike LaFleur
1-0 as Arizona head coach · won debut 26-14 at LAC
LaFleur's first Cardinals game looked organized. Arizona stayed on the field, Brissett played on time and the offense did not become one-dimensional.
Macdonald's answer starts with the same formula Seattle used all last season: stop the run without overcommitting, change the picture before the snap and make the quarterback hold the ball long enough for four-man pressure to matter.
Last meetingsSeattle has won nine straight
Most recent · Week 10, 2025
SEA 44ARI 22
The earlier 2025 meeting in Glendale was much tighter: Seattle 23, Arizona 20 on a walk-off Jason Myers field goal.
2025 Wk 10
SEA 44 · ARI 22
2025 Wk 4
SEA 23 · ARI 20
2024 Wk 14
SEA 30 · ARI 18
2024 Wk 12
SEA 16 · ARI 6
2023 Wk 18
SEA 21 · ARI 20
Football IQThe concepts behind this week's sheet
EPA per play
Expected Points Added measures how much each snap changes a team's expected points. It gives more credit to plays that matter in the down-and-distance situation instead of treating every yard equally.
This week: the 2025 baseline still matters more than one Week 1 sample, which is why the model does not treat Arizona as a finished top-five unit after one game.
Simulated pressure
The defense presents more potential rushers than it sends, then drops one expected rusher and attacks from somewhere else. The goal is to make the protection identify the wrong threats while still keeping bodies in coverage.
This week: Brissett played on time against Los Angeles. Seattle needs the disguise to change his first read before the rush arrives.
Possession versus play count
Possession time tells you how long an offense owned the ball. Play count tells you how many chances it created.
This week: Arizona ran 72 plays in Week 1. Seattle ran 48. A repeat gives Arizona 24 more chances to create a mistake or explosive play.
Light box
A light box means the defense keeps fewer defenders close to the line. If the front still stops the run, the defense keeps more bodies for coverage and disguise.
This week: Seattle's front handling Allgeier and Love without safety help frees the secondary to focus on McBride.
Play action
The quarterback shows a handoff before pulling the ball back to throw. It works when linebackers or safeties react to the run and leave space behind them.
This week: early play action gives Lock defined throws without asking him to live in obvious dropback situations.