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Seattle Football HQWeek 2 · 2026

SEAatARI

Seattle 1-0Arizona 1-0
Sunday, September 20 · 1:25 pm PT / 4:25 pm ET · State Farm Stadium · FOX
Mike Macdonald vs Mike LaFleur · Drew Lock starts for Seattle

Nine straight. Now prove it again.

Seattle has won nine straight against Arizona, but the Cardinals opened the Mike LaFleur era with a 26-14 road win over the Chargers. Arizona controlled the ball for 37:31, gained 393 yards, ran 72 plays and did not turn it over. Seattle comes in 1-0 with its defense still deciding games and Drew Lock making the start for the injured Sam Darnold.

PredictionsModel score and Jesse's pick

HQ model
SEA 22.8ARI 18.6
Seattle by 4.2 · 62% win estimate · projected score 22.8–18.6
MODEL
Jesse's pick
SEA 24ARI 10
Seahawks destroy the Cardinals
JESSE

Game day picks

Jesse P.SEA 24–10
Kendall P.SEA 24–6
KC A.SEA 24–10
Matt M.SEA 22–9
Steve M.SEA 19–13
Barry P.SEA 24–10
HQ ModelSEA 22.8–18.6
Why the model lands there
Seattle 2025 defense17.2 pts/g1st
Arizona 2025 defense29 pts/gbottom tier
Seattle Week 113-10 W+3 TO
Arizona Week 126-14 W0 giveaways
QB adjustmentLock startsSEA downgrade
Predicted marginSEA +4.2road game

Same model framework as Week 1: prior-season team efficiency fades as current-season data arrives, with Elo, home field and quarterback adjustment layered in. Week 1 still receives limited weight because one game is noisy.

The read

Arizona earned attention in Week 1. The Cardinals did not steal the game with one play. They held a 21-snap advantage, gained 125 more yards than the Chargers and played turnover-free football.

Seattle's matchup advantage still starts with the defensive front. Arizona averaged under four yards per running-back carry, while Seattle opened 2026 by crushing New England's run game. If the Seahawks stop the run without crowding the box, Macdonald gets more coverage answers for McBride.

The variable is Lock. Seattle needs longer possessions than it had in the opener. If Lock protects the ball and Seattle gets JSN involved early, the defense should not need three fourth-quarter interceptions to finish the game.

Season prediction record
Wk 1 vs NEModel SEA 25.5-22.4Final SEA 13-10winner right
Wk 2 at ARIModel SEA 22.8-18.6Jesse SEA 24-10pending
Week 2 · Game day

Game Day Prep Sheet

Matchups, tendencies, stats and ten things to keep open while Seattle plays Arizona.

Open the 10 things to watch ↓

Game Prep SheetIf you see this, watch this

Ten things to keep open during the game. Week 2 blends the 2025 baseline with what both teams showed in their 2026 openers.

01
If you see

Arizona starts by feeding Trey McBride.

Watch

Who owns the middle of the field, especially with Nick Emmanwori still limited in practice.

Why it matters

McBride caught nine passes for 95 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Brissett wants a dependable answer inside, and Seattle's safety health changes how aggressively the defense can rotate coverage toward him.

VERIFIED
02
If you see

Brissett keeps getting the ball out before pressure arrives.

Watch

Whether Seattle changes his first read instead of only trying to win faster up front.

Why it matters

Arizona's Week 1 offense lived in rhythm. Seattle's simulated-pressure game works best when the protection and quarterback identify different threats before the snap.

AI READ
03
If you see

Arizona's guards start shuffling bodies.

Watch

Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy inside, especially on third-and-medium.

Why it matters

Left guard Isaac Seumalo is dealing with a shoulder injury and right guard Isaiah Adams is working back from a knee injury. Both were limited Thursday. That is the cleanest injury-to-matchup connection on Arizona's side.

VERIFIED
04
If you see

Seattle goes three-and-out early.

Watch

The total snap count and Arizona's possession time, not only the score.

Why it matters

Seattle ran only 48 plays in Week 1. Arizona ran 72 and held the ball for 37:31. Seattle does not want its defense absorbing another 65 to 70 snaps.

VERIFIED
05
If you see

Lock gets an early first-down play-action throw.

Watch

Whether JSN is the first read and whether Arizona's linebackers step toward the run fake.

Why it matters

Lock was efficient in relief, and Seattle's biggest offensive play in Week 1 was his 45-yard touchdown to JSN from a run-action look on fourth-and-1.

AI READ
06
If you see

Seattle keeps handing it off into a crowded front.

Watch

Whether the run is earning another carry or only setting up the next throw.

Why it matters

Seattle's Week 1 rush efficiency was poor even though Jadarian Price averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Arizona's defense also held the Chargers to 81 rushing yards.

DERIVED
07
If you see

JSN starts winning immediately.

Watch

How quickly Arizona rolls help toward him and who becomes Seattle's second answer.

Why it matters

JSN opened the year with eight catches for 122 yards and the touchdown. Cooper Kupp upgraded to full participation Thursday, while Tory Horton has practiced in full both days.

VERIFIED
08
If you see

Arizona keeps reaching second-and-short.

Watch

Whether Seattle is losing to quick throws or giving up efficient runs.

Why it matters

Arizona's opener worked because it stayed on schedule. Seattle's best response is forcing Brissett into obvious passing downs where the disguise package has more value.

AI READ
09
If you see

The game is still within one score in the fourth quarter.

Watch

Turnover margin before anything else.

Why it matters

Seattle won Week 1 with zero giveaways and three takeaways. Arizona also played turnover-free football while taking the ball away twice. Both teams just won with the clean version of the same formula.

VERIFIED
10
If you see

Arizona hangs around despite losing the efficiency battle.

Watch

Special teams and short fields.

Why it matters

Arizona blocked a punt in Week 1 and turned it into a touchdown from the Chargers' 3-yard line. In a low-scoring divisional game, one short field changes the script.

VERIFIED

The matchupWeek 1 data plus the 2025 baseline

SEA
ARI
Week 1 points
13
26
Week 1 points allowed
10
14
Week 1 total yards
285
393
Week 1 yards/play
5.9
5.5
Week 1 offensive plays
48
72
Week 1 turnovers
0
0

2025 context

Seattle points/game28.43rd
Seattle points allowed/game17.21st
Arizona points/game222025
Arizona points allowed/game292025

Arizona's opener is meaningful evidence of improvement. It is still one game, so the preview keeps the 2025 sample visible instead of replacing it.

Sunday morning injury reportUpdated September 20

Sam Darnold, Ty Okada and Anthony Bradford are out. Drew Lock starts. Nick Emmanwori remains questionable. Tory Horton, Cooper Kupp, Josh Jobe and Josh Jones carry no game designation.

Seattle

Sam Darnold QB · gluteOUT
Drew Lock starts
Ty Okada S · hamstringOUT
Anthony Bradford G · knee/hipOUT
Christian Haynes next up
Nick Emmanwori S · ankle/hipQUESTIONABLE
Josh Jones G/T · kneeNO DESIGNATION
Cooper Kupp WR · backNO DESIGNATION
Tory Horton WR · hamstringNO DESIGNATION
Josh Jobe CB · wristNO DESIGNATION

Arizona

Roy Lopez DT · groinQUESTIONABLE
Isaac Seumalo G · shoulderQUESTIONABLE
Isaiah Adams G · kneeQUESTIONABLE
Andrew Billings DT · kneeQUESTIONABLE
Jack Gibbens LB · shoulderLimited
Max Melton CB · ankleQUESTIONABLE
Cody Simon LB · shoulderLimited
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S · ribsQUESTIONABLE
Garrett Williams CB · AchillesOUT
Trey McBride TE · back/restFull Thu
Budda Baker S · restFull Thu
Josh Sweat LB · restFull Thu

ArizonaWhat Week 1 changed

Offense

Week 1: 393 yards, 72 plays, 5.5 yards per play, 37:31 possession, zero turnovers.
Identity: Brissett rhythm passing, McBride volume, enough run game to stay on schedule.

Defense

Week 1: 268 yards allowed, 51 plays, two takeaways, 14 points allowed.
Context: Arizona allowed 29 points per game in 2025, so one strong opener is evidence, not a finished identity.

Jacoby Brissett
27/37C/A277YDS1/0TD/INT7.5Y/A
Trey McBride TE9 rec · 95 yds · 1 TD
Kendrick Bourne WR8 rec · 75 yds
Michael Wilson WR5 rec · 56 yds
Tyler Allgeier RB17 car · 61 yds
Jeremiyah Love RB11 car · 41 yds · 1 TD

SeattleWeek 1 self scout

Offense

Good: 5.9 yards per play, no turnovers, Lock and JSN created the explosive play Seattle needed.
Problem: 48 plays and only two third-down conversions.

Defense

Good: three takeaways, three sacks, dominant run defense.
Problem: the unit played 67 New England snaps and needed a fourth-quarter takeover.

Drew Lock
16/22C/A187YDS1/0TD/INT8.5Y/A
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR8 rec · 122 yds · 1 TD
Jadarian Price RB10 car · 52 yds
Cooper Kupp WR2 rec · 35 yds
Julian Love SINT · 2 TFL
Josh Jobe CBINT · PD · TFL
Nehemiah Pritchett CBINT · 2 PD

Players to knowThe matchup through Week 1

Seattle

Drew Lock QBFirst 2026 start · efficient relief win in Wk 1
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR11 targets · 122 yds · TD
Jadarian Price RB10 carries · 52 yds
Leonard Williams DLInterior matchup gets bigger with ARI guard injuries
Nick Emmanwori SLimited Thu · ankle/hip

Arizona

Jacoby Brissett QB27/37 · 277 · TD · 0 INT
Trey McBride TE9 rec · 95 yds · TD
Tyler Allgeier RB17 carries · 61 yds
Jeremiyah Love RB11 carries · 41 yds · TD
Budda Baker SFull Thu after rest day
Josh Sweat LBFull Thu after rest day

The coachesEstablished system versus a new Arizona era

Mike Macdonald on the Seahawks sideline
Mike Macdonald
“Run it forward.”
Week 2 mindset
Seattle
Mike Macdonald
Year 3 in Seattle · defending Super Bowl champion · 1-0 in 2026
Arizona
Mike LaFleur
1-0 as Arizona head coach · won debut 26-14 at LAC

LaFleur's first Cardinals game looked organized. Arizona stayed on the field, Brissett played on time and the offense did not become one-dimensional.

Macdonald's answer starts with the same formula Seattle used all last season: stop the run without overcommitting, change the picture before the snap and make the quarterback hold the ball long enough for four-man pressure to matter.

Last meetingsSeattle has won nine straight

Most recent · Week 10, 2025
SEA 44ARI 22

The earlier 2025 meeting in Glendale was much tighter: Seattle 23, Arizona 20 on a walk-off Jason Myers field goal.

2025 Wk 10SEA 44 · ARI 22
2025 Wk 4SEA 23 · ARI 20
2024 Wk 14SEA 30 · ARI 18
2024 Wk 12SEA 16 · ARI 6
2023 Wk 18SEA 21 · ARI 20

Football IQThe concepts behind this week's sheet

EPA per play

Expected Points Added measures how much each snap changes a team's expected points. It gives more credit to plays that matter in the down-and-distance situation instead of treating every yard equally.

This week: the 2025 baseline still matters more than one Week 1 sample, which is why the model does not treat Arizona as a finished top-five unit after one game.

Simulated pressure

The defense presents more potential rushers than it sends, then drops one expected rusher and attacks from somewhere else. The goal is to make the protection identify the wrong threats while still keeping bodies in coverage.

This week: Brissett played on time against Los Angeles. Seattle needs the disguise to change his first read before the rush arrives.

Possession versus play count

Possession time tells you how long an offense owned the ball. Play count tells you how many chances it created.

This week: Arizona ran 72 plays in Week 1. Seattle ran 48. A repeat gives Arizona 24 more chances to create a mistake or explosive play.

Light box

A light box means the defense keeps fewer defenders close to the line. If the front still stops the run, the defense keeps more bodies for coverage and disguise.

This week: Seattle's front handling Allgeier and Love without safety help frees the secondary to focus on McBride.

Play action

The quarterback shows a handoff before pulling the ball back to throw. It works when linebackers or safeties react to the run and leave space behind them.

This week: early play action gives Lock defined throws without asking him to live in obvious dropback situations.